The “Swissness” factor: why Swiss banks remain resilient

In dialogue on economic outlooks and the role of Swissness for banks: Nina Michel and Martin Hess.

For the current Swiss Banking Outlook Update, the Economic Policy team surveyed leading economists and financial market experts from member banks. They assessed developments in the economy, interest rates and key banking business areas. The result: no euphoria, but no crisis scenario either.

Martin, let us start right there: why is the overall assessment described as “cautiously optimistic”?

Because several factors are at work at the same time. For 2026, the experts expect moderate economic growth, very low inflation and a policy rate of 0.00%. This points to stability. At the same time, developments in our key markets are improving slightly. However, the international environment remains highly uncertain. This combination results in a positive but restrained overall picture.

Nina, what does this mean in concrete terms for the Swiss economy?

The economy continues to grow, but without strong momentum. For 2026, respondents expect growth of around 1.2%. Unemployment is rising slightly, but remains at a low level. What is striking is how closely aligned the assessments of the experts are in the Swiss Banking Outlook. This shows that the forecasts are broadly based.

And how does this environment translate to the banks?

Martin: Surprisingly stable. Around four fifths of the experts expect banks’ operating performance in 2026 to remain stable or even increase. This is remarkable, given that the interest rate environment continues to be challenging for banks. Interest margins remain under significant pressure.

Where does this optimism come from, if not from interest business?

Nina: From commission business and services. Clients are once again more active in the financial markets, they are investing more, and assets under management are growing. Wealth management in particular makes a significant contribution to overall performance. Rising assets under management and positive market developments are offsetting the ongoing pressure on interest margins.

A topic that directly affects many people is home ownership. What does the Outlook show for mortgages?

Martin: Demand for mortgage loans continues to rise, despite the abolition of imputed rental value. This is one of the clear findings of the survey.

Nina: High property prices are a key driver. Even if demand remains stable, total mortgage volume increases because higher amounts need to be financed. Mortgage business therefore remains very important for banks.

What about corporate lending?

Nina: Expectations here are more restrained. For domestic non mortgage loans, many expect a stable but only moderate development. Companies are investing cautiously, reflecting the uncertainty in the global environment.

The outlook is clearly more positive for cross border assets under management. Why?

Martin: Because “Swissness” is once again in strong demand. That is security, stability and what can simply be described as solid Swiss banking expertise. The Swiss financial centre benefits from this, together with the strength of the Swiss franc.

Nina: This is why the experts surveyed expect cross border assets under management to reach a new record level in 2026.

Your conclusion on the Swiss Banking Outlook Update 2026?

Martin: Switzerland’s banking centre is proving resilient in an interest rate environment that remains difficult and is likely to do so for some time.

Nina: And it is well positioned as long as it continues to focus on services, quality and trust.